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Russia can count on support from many developing countries
Russia can count on support from many developing countriesWed, 30th Mar 2022
Analysis by EIU’s global forecasting team shows that two-thirds of the world’s population lives in neutral or Russia-leaning countries regarding war in Ukraine.
- On March 2nd 141 countries voted in favour of a UN resolution deploring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Looking beyond that one vote, our judgement of underlying posture is more nuanced, with two-thirds of the world’s population living in neutral or Russia-leaning countries.
“We have produced a map assessing a broad measure of support for Russia around the world, highlighting which countries support Russia; the West; or fall in between—assessing which side each country would pick if it had to, using a long-term lens. To do so we have taken a variety of criteria into account, including the imposition of sanctions, UN voting patterns, official statements, as well as economic, political and historical ties.”
cody feldman, senior analyst, global forecasting
- We found that 36% of the world’s population live in countries that have actively condemned Russia and imposed sanctions on the Russian economy. Led by the US and the EU, this bloc includes all Western-leaning governments, such as Japan, Australia, Canada, the UK, South Korea, and (albeit to a lesser extent) Israel. Traditionally neutral countries, such as Switzerland, Finland and Sweden, have also joined the ranks of this Western front.
- Meanwhile, nearly one third of the world’s population lives in a country that has remained neutral so far. Led by India, these non-aligned states–including Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the UAE–will do their utmost to avoid picking sides while seeking to benefit from their apparent neutrality. We believe that a significant share of these countries would align with Russia if tensions were to escalate.
- Finally, another 32% of the world’s population lives in a country where the government has supported Russia’s actions or where official declarations have echoed Russia’s narrative, including by avoiding calling the war an “invasion”. Led by China, in the long-term these countries will try to benefit from closer ties to an anti-Western bloc, further reinforcing a split in the global economic and geopolitical landscape.
- Looking at economic weightings paints a different picture, however. The West-supporting camp represents about 70% of global GDP. By contrast, the neutral and Russia-friendly blocs concentrate only around 30% of global GDP, with China and India accounting for nearly two-thirds of this group’s economic footprint.
In the coming years Russia (and China) will devote their efforts to courting non-aligned, neutral countries–which are mostly found in the developing world. Building on other instruments, such as vaccine diplomacy, the Russian and Chinese governments will hope to forge an opposing front to the West. The eventual result will be a waning influence and gradual retreat of Western countries from much of the developing world..
Agathe demarais, global forecasting director
More economic and political analysis on the Russia-Ukraine conflict can be found in EIU Viewpoint, our new analysis service. EIU Viewpoint provides unmatched forecasts, analysis and data for nearly 200 countries, helping organisations identify prospective opportunities and potential risks.
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