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Showing content from https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/COVID19/index.htm below:

Provisional COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance

This graph displays counts of deaths from all causes by jurisdiction and week in which the death occurred. For data on deaths from 2015-2019, , and 2020-present,

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NOTE: Number of deaths reported on this page are the total number of deaths received and coded as of the date of analysis and do not represent all deaths that occurred in that period. Data are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction and cause of death. Data for New York excludes New York City. Data from 2015-2019 are based on final data and data from 2020-2025 are provisional. Data are presented with a 2-week lag.

Note: AH = Ad-hoc. Datasets with the prefix AH are not updated routinely, but can be updated upon request.

The provisional counts for COVID-19 deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.

Provisional death counts are based on death records received and processed by NCHS as of a specified cutoff date. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia. NCHS receives the death records from state vital registration offices through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program. Provisional data are based on available records that meet certain data quality criteria at the time of analysis and may not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period especially for more recent periods. Estimates of completeness are provided. Therefore, they should not be considered comparable with final data and are subject to change.

Mortality statistics are compiled in accordance with World Health Organization (WHO) regulations specifying that WHO member nations classify and code causes of death with the current revision of the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (ICD). ICD provides the basic guidance used in virtually all countries to code and classify causes of death. It provides not only disease, injury, and poisoning categories but also the rules used to select the single underlying cause of death for tabulation from the several diagnoses that may be reported on a single death certificate, as well as definitions, tabulation lists, the format of the death certificate, and regulations on use of the classification. Causes of death for data presented in this report were coded according to ICD guidelines described in annual issues of Part 2a of the NCHS Instruction Manual.

COVID-19 deaths are identified using the ICD–10 code U07.1. Deaths are coded to U07.1 when COVID-19 is reported as a cause that contributed to death on the death certificate. These can include laboratory confirmed cases, as well as cases without laboratory confirmation. If the certifier suspects COVID-19 or determines it was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), they can report COVID-19 as “probable” or “presumed” on the death certificate. COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause on the death certificate in 86% of deaths. The percent was 91% in 2020, 90% in 2021, 76% in 2022 and approximately 66% in 2023.

Provisional data are incomplete, and the level of completeness varies by jurisdiction, week, decedent’s age, and cause of death. Until data for a calendar year are finalized, typically in December of the following year, completeness of provisional data cannot be determined. However, completeness can be estimated in a variety of ways. For the purposes of COVID-19 surveillance, completeness is approximated by comparing the provisional number of deaths received to the number of expected deaths based on prior years data. Percent of expected deaths provided in this data release are based on the total count of deaths in the most recent weeks of the current year, compared with an average across the same weeks in previous years. These estimates of completeness are calculated by week, month and year, jurisdiction of occurrence, and age group.

Percent of expected deaths provided in this release are shown to provide context for interpreting provisional counts of COVID-19 deaths and deaths due to related causes. Where estimated values are high (e.g., greater than 100%), this suggests that mortality is higher in 2020-2023 relative to the same weeks of prior years. Where estimated values of completeness are low, this could indicate that data are incomplete due to delayed reporting, or that mortality is lower in 2020-2023 compared with prior years, or some combination of these factors.

Provisional counts of deaths are underestimated relative to final counts. This is due to the many steps involved in reporting death certificate data. When a death occurs, a certifier (e.g. physician, medical examiner or coroner) will complete the death certificate with the underlying cause of death and any contributing causes of death. In some cases, laboratory tests or autopsy results may be required to determine the cause of death. Completed death certificate are sent to the state vital records office and then to NCHS for cause of death coding. At NCHS, about 90% of deaths are automatically processed and coded within seconds, but 10% of deaths need to be manually coded, or coded by a person. Death certificates are typically manually coded within 7 days of receipt, although the coding delay can grow if there is a large increase in the number of deaths. As a result, underestimation of the number of deaths may be greater for certain causes of death than others.

Death data are approximately 65% complete within 2 weeks, 85% complete within 4 weeks, and at least 94% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred. Similarly, COVID-19 deaths are 65% complete within 2 weeks, 85% complete within 4 weeks, and 95% complete within 8 weeks of when the death occurred.

NCHS, National Vital Statistics System. Estimates are based on provisional data.

Ahmad FB, Cisewski JA. Provisional COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance. National Center for Health Statistics. 2025. DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.15620/cdc/20250305007

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