This paper describes the results of Bayesian modeling of radiocarbon dates from Early Bronze Age contexts in Southern Mesopotamia, modern-day southern Iraq. The model uses14C dates available in the literature, employing archaeological and textual information to correlate contexts from a number of important Mesopotamian sites. The insufficient number of dates makes it impossible to precisely define the chronology of the period in question; however, the analysis allows for observing patterns of cultural change otherwise invisible in archaeological and textual records. Firstly, it is suggested that there was a hiatus of at least a century between the latest protocuneiform texts and the earliest historical writing. Furthermore, the results seem to argue against a steady, gradual evolution of literate civilizations, indicating a more complex and varied process of development.
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