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Showing content from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38533392/ below:

Excess deaths in China during SARS-CoV-2 viral waves in 2022-2023

Affiliations

• ¹ Centre for Global Health Research, Unity Health Toronto and University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
• ² Angus Reid Institute, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

• PMID: 38533392
• PMCID: PMC10963212
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2024.102687

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Prabhat Jha et al. Prev Med Rep. 2024.

• ¹ Centre for Global Health Research, Unity Health Toronto and University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada.
• ² Angus Reid Institute, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

• PMID: 38533392
• PMCID: PMC10963212
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pmedr.2024.102687

Item in Clipboard

Background: The extent to which the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 raised death rates in China during its viral wave of December 2022-January 2023 remains largely undocumented.

Methods: We worked with an established national survey organization to survey 8,004 adults in all 31 administrative areas of China to ask about deaths in families since January 2020. We examined age-specific death rates, focusing on deaths above age 60 years, and at 15-59 years. We compared these to the United Nations (UN) estimates of age-specific mortality in 2019.

Findings: The survey participants were broadly similar to the 2020 census and other national surveys in age, sex, region, and smoking status, but had lower SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rates and higher education levels. There were no differences in reporting of deaths during the Omicron period (after November 2021) versus earlier. The survey captured 456 deaths, of which 329 occurred at ages 60+ years and 212 were of women. At ages 60+ years, death rates approximately doubled during December 2022-January 2023. Deaths at ages 15-59 years did not rise appreciably. The UN estimates approximately 675,000 deaths per month at ages 60+ years in 2019. If rates doubled nationally as in our survey, China had approximately 1.35 million excess deaths from December 2022-January 2023.

Interpretation: China experienced a sharp but short increase in excess deaths among its elderly during the Omicron wave. If death registry data corroborate our estimates of substantial excess deaths in China, the worldwide estimates of excess deaths due to SARS-CoV-2 in 2022-2023 may need upward adjustment.

© 2024 The Authors.

PubMed Disclaimer

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Mortality rates per 1000 at…

Mortality rates per 1000 at ages 60 years or older and 15–59 years…

Mortality rates per 1000 at ages 60 years or older and 15–59 years in a nationally representative survey in China from 2020 to 23 compared to United Nations estimates for earlier years. Figure legend: Peak viral periods in March-April 2022 and Dec 2022-Jan 2023 (Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2023) are shown in the black rectangles. The numbers of study deaths are shown in the text below the figure. Study deaths use rolling three-month averages. The annual mortality rates are per 1,000 person-years. The smoothed UN estimated deaths are for 2012–19 ( https://population.un.org/wpp/ ).

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