Home - News ( United States | United Kingdom | Italy | Germany ) - Football scores

Showing content from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32220655/ below:

The effect of control strategies to reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China: a modelling study

Collaborators, Affiliations

• Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group: Stefan Flasche, Samuel Clifford, Carl A B Pearson, James D Munday, Sam Abbott, Hamish Gibbs, Alicia Rosello, Billy J Quilty, Thibaut Jombart, Fiona Sun, Charlie Diamond, Amy Gimma, Kevin van Zandvoort, Sebastian Funk, Christopher I Jarvis, W John Edmunds, Nikos I Bosse, Joel Hellewell

• ¹ Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: kiesha.prem@lshtm.ac.uk.
• ² Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

• PMID: 32220655
• PMCID: PMC7158905
• DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6

Item in Clipboard

Kiesha Prem et al. Lancet Public Health. 2020 May.

• Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group: Stefan Flasche, Samuel Clifford, Carl A B Pearson, James D Munday, Sam Abbott, Hamish Gibbs, Alicia Rosello, Billy J Quilty, Thibaut Jombart, Fiona Sun, Charlie Diamond, Amy Gimma, Kevin van Zandvoort, Sebastian Funk, Christopher I Jarvis, W John Edmunds, Nikos I Bosse, Joel Hellewell

• ¹ Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK. Electronic address: kiesha.prem@lshtm.ac.uk.
• ² Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

• PMID: 32220655
• PMCID: PMC7158905
• DOI: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30073-6

Item in Clipboard

• Correction to Lancet Public Health 2020; 5; e261-70.

  [No authors listed] [No authors listed] Lancet Public Health. 2020 May;5(5):e260. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30098-0. Lancet Public Health. 2020. PMID: 32380035 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

Background: In December, 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus, emerged in Wuhan, China. Since then, the city of Wuhan has taken unprecedented measures in response to the outbreak, including extended school and workplace closures. We aimed to estimate the effects of physical distancing measures on the progression of the COVID-19 epidemic, hoping to provide some insights for the rest of the world.

Methods: To examine how changes in population mixing have affected outbreak progression in Wuhan, we used synthetic location-specific contact patterns in Wuhan and adapted these in the presence of school closures, extended workplace closures, and a reduction in mixing in the general community. Using these matrices and the latest estimates of the epidemiological parameters of the Wuhan outbreak, we simulated the ongoing trajectory of an outbreak in Wuhan using an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model for several physical distancing measures. We fitted the latest estimates of epidemic parameters from a transmission model to data on local and internationally exported cases from Wuhan in an age-structured epidemic framework and investigated the age distribution of cases. We also simulated lifting of the control measures by allowing people to return to work in a phased-in way and looked at the effects of returning to work at different stages of the underlying outbreak (at the beginning of March or April).

Findings: Our projections show that physical distancing measures were most effective if the staggered return to work was at the beginning of April; this reduced the median number of infections by more than 92% (IQR 66-97) and 24% (13-90) in mid-2020 and end-2020, respectively. There are benefits to sustaining these measures until April in terms of delaying and reducing the height of the peak, median epidemic size at end-2020, and affording health-care systems more time to expand and respond. However, the modelled effects of physical distancing measures vary by the duration of infectiousness and the role school children have in the epidemic.

Interpretation: Restrictions on activities in Wuhan, if maintained until April, would probably help to delay the epidemic peak. Our projections suggest that premature and sudden lifting of interventions could lead to an earlier secondary peak, which could be flattened by relaxing the interventions gradually. However, there are limitations to our analysis, including large uncertainties around estimates of R₀ and the duration of infectiousness.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute for Health Research, Wellcome Trust, and Health Data Research UK.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

PubMed Disclaimer

Age-structured SEIR model and details…

Age-structured SEIR model and details of the modelled physical distancing interventions According to…

Age-structured SEIR model and details of the modelled physical distancing interventions According to infection status, we divided the population into susceptible (S), exposed (E), infected (I), and removed (R) individuals. An infected individual in an age group can be clinical (I^c) or subclinical (I^sc), and ρ_i refers to the probability that an individual is symptomatic or clinical. The age-specific mixing patterns of individuals in age group i, C_i,j, alter their likelihood of being exposed to the virus given a certain number of infected individuals in the population. Younger individuals are more likely to be asymptomatic and less infectious, ie, subclinical. When ρ_i=0 for all i, the model simplifies to a standard SEIR. The force of infection φ_i,t is given by 1–(βΣ_jC_i,jI^C_j,t+αβΣ_jC_i,jI^SC_j,t), where β is the transmission rate and α is the proportion of transmission that resulted from a subclinical individual. SEIR= susceptible-exposed-infected-removed.

Synthetic age-specific and location-specific contact…

Synthetic age-specific and location-specific contact matrices for China under various physical distancing scenarios…

Synthetic age-specific and location-specific contact matrices for China under various physical distancing scenarios during the intense control period for China Synthetic age-specific contact patterns across all locations, at home, in the workplace, in school, and at other locations during normal circumstances (ie, under no intervention) are presented in panels A to E. Age-specific and location-specific contact matrices under the various physical distancing interventions are presented in panels F to T. Darker colour intensities indicate higher proclivity of making the age-specific contact.

Effects of different intervention strategies…

Effects of different intervention strategies on cumulative incidence and new cases per day…

Effects of different intervention strategies on cumulative incidence and new cases per day among individuals aged 55 to <60 years (A to D) and 10 to <15 years (E to H) from late 2019 to end-2020

Effects of different physical distancing…

Effects of different physical distancing measures on cumulative incidence (A) and new cases…

Effects of different physical distancing measures on cumulative incidence (A) and new cases per day (B), and age-specific incidence per day (C to G) from late 2019 to end-2020 Results depicted here assume an infectious period of 7 days. Median cumulative incidence, incident cases per day, and age-specific incidence per day are represented as solid lines. Shaded areas around the coloured lines in panel A represent the IQR.

Modelled proportion of number of…

Modelled proportion of number of infections averted by end-2020 by age for different…

Modelled proportion of number of infections averted by end-2020 by age for different physical distancing measures, assuming the duration of infectiousness to be 3 days (A, B) or 7 days (C, D) The additional proportions of cases averted (compared with no intervention) are presented across age and by the different physical distancing measures.

• Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study.

  Davies NG, Kucharski AJ, Eggo RM, Gimma A, Edmunds WJ; Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group. Davies NG, et al. Lancet Public Health. 2020 Jul;5(7):e375-e385. doi: 10.1016/S2468-2667(20)30133-X. Epub 2020 Jun 2. Lancet Public Health. 2020. PMID: 32502389 Free PMC article.

• Ceftazidime with avibactam for treating severe aerobic Gram-negative bacterial infections: technology evaluation to inform a novel subscription-style payment model.

  Harnan S, Kearns B, Scope A, Schmitt L, Jankovic D, Hamilton J, Srivastava T, Hill H, Ku CC, Ren S, Rothery C, Bojke L, Sculpher M, Woods B. Harnan S, et al. Health Technol Assess. 2024 Oct;28(73):1-230. doi: 10.3310/YAPL9347. Health Technol Assess. 2024. PMID: 39487661 Free PMC article.

• Dynamic Field Theory of Executive Function: Identifying Early Neurocognitive Markers.

  McCraw A, Sullivan J, Lowery K, Eddings R, Heim HR, Buss AT. McCraw A, et al. Monogr Soc Res Child Dev. 2024 Dec;89(3):7-109. doi: 10.1111/mono.12478. Monogr Soc Res Child Dev. 2024. PMID: 39628288 Free PMC article.

• Strategies to improve smoking cessation rates in primary care.

  Lindson N, Pritchard G, Hong B, Fanshawe TR, Pipe A, Papadakis S. Lindson N, et al. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021 Sep 6;9(9):CD011556. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD011556.pub2. Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 2021. PMID: 34693994 Free PMC article. Review.

• Trends in Surgical and Nonsurgical Aesthetic Procedures: A 14-Year Analysis of the International Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery-ISAPS.

  Triana L, Palacios Huatuco RM, Campilgio G, Liscano E. Triana L, et al. Aesthetic Plast Surg. 2024 Oct;48(20):4217-4227. doi: 10.1007/s00266-024-04260-2. Epub 2024 Aug 5. Aesthetic Plast Surg. 2024. PMID: 39103642 Review.

• The shortage of hospital beds for COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients during the lockdown of Wuhan, China.

  Zhuang Z, Cao P, Zhao S, Han L, He D, Yang L. Zhuang Z, et al. Ann Transl Med. 2021 Feb;9(3):200. doi: 10.21037/atm-20-5248. Ann Transl Med. 2021. PMID: 33708827 Free PMC article.

• COVID-19 Epidemic in Malaysia: Epidemic Progression, Challenges, and Response.

  Hashim JH, Adman MA, Hashim Z, Mohd Radi MF, Kwan SC. Hashim JH, et al. Front Public Health. 2021 May 7;9:560592. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.560592. eCollection 2021. Front Public Health. 2021. PMID: 34026696 Free PMC article. Review.

• SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control in a hospital setting: an individual-based modelling study.

  Huang Q, Mondal A, Jiang X, Horn MA, Fan F, Fu P, Wang X, Zhao H, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Gurarie D. Huang Q, et al. R Soc Open Sci. 2021 Mar 22;8(3):201895. doi: 10.1098/rsos.201895. R Soc Open Sci. 2021. PMID: 33959348 Free PMC article.

• Challenging the spread of COVID-19 in Thailand.

  Tantrakarnapa K, Bhopdhornangkul B. Tantrakarnapa K, et al. One Health. 2020 Dec 20;11:100173. doi: 10.1016/j.onehlt.2020.100173. Epub 2020 Oct 7. One Health. 2020. PMID: 33043106 Free PMC article.

• REAL-TIME MECHANISTIC BAYESIAN FORECASTS OF COVID-19 MORTALITY.

  Gibson GC, Reich NG, Sheldon D. Gibson GC, et al. Ann Appl Stat. 2023 Sep;17(3):1801-1819. doi: 10.1214/22-aoas1671. Epub 2023 Sep 7. Ann Appl Stat. 2023. PMID: 38983109 Free PMC article.

1. 1. Li Q, Guan X, Wu P. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020 doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001316. published online Jan 29. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
2. 1. Zhu N, Zhang D, Wang W. A novel coronavirus from patients with pneumonia in China, 2019. N Engl J Med. 2020 doi: 10.1056/NEJMoa2001017. published Feb 20. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
3. 1. Chen S, Yang J, Yang W, Wang C, Bärnighausen T. COVID-19 control in China during mass population movements at New Year. Lancet. 2020;395:764–766. - PMC - PubMed
4. 1. Fong MW, Gao H, Wong JY. Nonpharmaceutical measures for pandemic influenza in nonhealthcare settings—social distancing measures. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 doi: 10.3201/eid2605.190995. published online Feb 6. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
5. 1. Hens N, Ayele GM, Goeyvaerts N. Estimating the impact of school closure on social mixing behaviour and the transmission of close contact infections in eight European countries. BMC Infect Dis. 2009;9:187. - PMC - PubMed

RetroSearch is an open source project built by @garambo | Open a GitHub Issue

Search and Browse the WWW like it's 1997 | Search results from DuckDuckGo

HTML: 3.2 | Encoding: UTF-8 | Version: 0.7.3