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Showing content from https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30885346/ below:

Lung cancer mortality in Australia in the twenty-first century: How many lives can be saved with effective tobacco control?

doi: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2019.02.028. Epub 2019 Feb 28. Lung cancer mortality in Australia in the twenty-first century: How many lives can be saved with effective tobacco control? Julia Steinberg², Dianne L O'Connell³, Xue Qin Yu⁴, Michael Caruana⁵, Stephen Wade⁶, Francesca Pesola⁷, Paul B Grogan⁸, Anita Dessaix⁹, Becky Freeman¹⁰, Sally Dunlop¹¹, Peter Sasieni¹², Tony Blakely¹³, Emily Banks¹⁴, Karen Canfell¹⁵

Affiliations

¹ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: qingweil@nswcc.org.au.
² Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: julia.steinberg@nswcc.org.au.
³ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: dianneo@nswcc.org.au.
⁴ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: xueqiny@nswcc.org.au.
⁵ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: michael.caruana@nswcc.org.au.
⁶ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: stephen.wade@nswcc.org.au.
⁷ Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Innovation Hub, Guys Cancer Centre, Guys Hospital, King's College London, London, UK. Electronic address: francesca.pesola@kcl.ac.uk.
⁸ The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Cancer Council Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: paul.grogan@cancer.org.au.
⁹ Cancer Prevention and Advocacy, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: anita.dessaix@nswcc.org.au.
¹⁰ The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: becky.freeman@sydney.edu.au.
¹¹ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: sally.dunlop@nswcc.org.au.
¹² Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Innovation Hub, Guys Cancer Centre, Guys Hospital, King's College London, London, UK; Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK. Electronic address: peter.sasieni@kcl.ac.uk.
¹³ Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address: ablakely@unimelb.edu.au.
¹⁴ National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. Electronic address: emily.banks@anu.edu.au.
¹⁵ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: karen.canfell@nswcc.org.au.

PMID: 30885346
DOI: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2019.02.028

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Lung cancer mortality in Australia in the twenty-first century: How many lives can be saved with effective tobacco control?

Qingwei Luo et al. Lung Cancer. 2019 Apr.

Free article doi: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2019.02.028. Epub 2019 Feb 28. Authors Qingwei Luo¹, Julia Steinberg², Dianne L O'Connell³, Xue Qin Yu⁴, Michael Caruana⁵, Stephen Wade⁶, Francesca Pesola⁷, Paul B Grogan⁸, Anita Dessaix⁹, Becky Freeman¹⁰, Sally Dunlop¹¹, Peter Sasieni¹², Tony Blakely¹³, Emily Banks¹⁴, Karen Canfell¹⁵ Affiliations

¹ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: qingweil@nswcc.org.au.
² Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: julia.steinberg@nswcc.org.au.
³ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; School of Medicine and Public Health, University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: dianneo@nswcc.org.au.
⁴ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: xueqiny@nswcc.org.au.
⁵ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: michael.caruana@nswcc.org.au.
⁶ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: stephen.wade@nswcc.org.au.
⁷ Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Innovation Hub, Guys Cancer Centre, Guys Hospital, King's College London, London, UK. Electronic address: francesca.pesola@kcl.ac.uk.
⁸ The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; Cancer Council Australia, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: paul.grogan@cancer.org.au.
⁹ Cancer Prevention and Advocacy, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: anita.dessaix@nswcc.org.au.
¹⁰ The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: becky.freeman@sydney.edu.au.
¹¹ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: sally.dunlop@nswcc.org.au.
¹² Faculty of Life Sciences & Medicine, School of Cancer & Pharmaceutical Sciences, Innovation Hub, Guys Cancer Centre, Guys Hospital, King's College London, London, UK; Centre for Cancer Prevention, Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and The London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK. Electronic address: peter.sasieni@kcl.ac.uk.
¹³ Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Electronic address: ablakely@unimelb.edu.au.
¹⁴ National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Research School of Population Health, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. Electronic address: emily.banks@anu.edu.au.
¹⁵ Cancer Research Division, Cancer Council NSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia; The University of Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. Electronic address: karen.canfell@nswcc.org.au.

PMID: 30885346
DOI: 10.1016/j.lungcan.2019.02.028

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Abstract

Objectives: To estimate the number of past and future lung cancer deaths that have already been averted by tobacco control initiatives in Australia, and to estimate the number of additional deaths averted under various smoking scenarios.

Methods: We predicted lung cancer mortality rates and case numbers to 2100 using a previously validated generalized linear model based on age, birth cohort and population cigarette smoking exposure. We estimated the impact of various tobacco control scenarios: 'actual tobacco control' (incorporating the aggregate effect of past and current taxation, plain packaging, mass media campaigns and other initiatives) and scenarios where 10%, 5% and 0% smoking prevalence was achieved by 2025, all of which were compared to a counterfactual scenario with the highest historical smoking consumption level continuing into the future as if no tobacco control initiatives had been implemented.

Results: Without tobacco control, there would have been an estimated 392,116 lung cancer deaths over the period 1956-2015; of these 20% (78,925 deaths; 75,839 males, 3086 females) have been averted due to tobacco control. However, if past and current measures continue to have the expected effect, an estimated 1.9 million deaths (1,579,515 males, 320,856 females; 67% of future lung cancer deaths) will be averted in 2016-2100. If smoking prevalence is reduced to 10%, 5% or 0% by 2025, an additional 97,432, 208,714 or 360,557 deaths could be averted from 2016 to 2100, respectively.

Conclusion: Tobacco control in Australia has had a dramatic impact on the number of people dying from lung cancer. Several hundred thousand more lung cancer deaths could be averted over the course of the century if close-to-zero smoking prevalence could be achieved in the next decade.

Keywords: Australia; Cigarette smoking exposure; Lung cancer mortality; Statistical projections; Tobacco control.

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