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One versus Two Breast Density Measures to Predict 5- and 10-Year Breast Cancer Risk

doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-15-0035. Epub 2015 Mar 30. One versus Two Breast Density Measures to Predict 5- and 10-Year Breast Cancer Risk

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One versus Two Breast Density Measures to Predict 5- and 10-Year Breast Cancer Risk

Karla Kerlikowske et al. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2015 Jun.

doi: 10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-15-0035. Epub 2015 Mar 30. Affiliations

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Abstract

Background: One measure of Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density improves 5-year breast cancer risk prediction, but the value of sequential measures is unknown. We determined whether two BI-RADS density measures improve the predictive accuracy of the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium 5-year risk model compared with one measure.

Methods: We included 722,654 women of ages 35 to 74 years with two mammograms with BI-RADS density measures on average 1.8 years apart; 13,715 developed invasive breast cancer. We used Cox regression to estimate the relative hazards of breast cancer for age, race/ethnicity, family history of breast cancer, history of breast biopsy, and one or two density measures. We developed a risk prediction model by combining these estimates with 2000-2010 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results incidence and 2010 vital statistics for competing risk of death.

Results: The two-measure density model had marginally greater discriminatory accuracy than the one-measure model (AUC, 0.640 vs. 0.635). Of 18.6% of women (134,404 of 722,654) who decreased density categories, 15.4% (20,741 of 134,404) of women whose density decreased from heterogeneously or extremely dense to a lower density category with one other risk factor had a clinically meaningful increase in 5-year risk from <1.67% with the one-density model to ≥1.67% with the two-density model.

Conclusion: The two-density model has similar overall discrimination to the one-density model for predicting 5-year breast cancer risk and improves risk classification for women with risk factors and a decrease in density.

Impact: A two-density model should be considered for women whose density decreases when calculating breast cancer risk.

©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

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Conflict of interest statement

Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest:

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interests to disclose.

Figures

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure 1a; almost entirely fatty breasts, 1b; scattered fibroglandular densities, 1c; heterogeneously dense, 1d; extremely dense) and previous density measure for the 14 combinations of BI-RADS density over 10 years of follow-up. The sold horizontal line represents a cumulative incidence of 1.67%. Density combinations d:a and a:d were excluded from the figure because of small numbers.

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure 1a; almost entirely fatty breasts, 1b; scattered fibroglandular densities, 1c; heterogeneously dense, 1d; extremely dense) and previous density measure for the 14 combinations of BI-RADS density over 10 years of follow-up. The sold horizontal line represents a cumulative incidence of 1.67%. Density combinations d:a and a:d were excluded from the figure because of small numbers.

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure 1a; almost entirely fatty breasts, 1b; scattered fibroglandular densities, 1c; heterogeneously dense, 1d; extremely dense) and previous density measure for the 14 combinations of BI-RADS density over 10 years of follow-up. The sold horizontal line represents a cumulative incidence of 1.67%. Density combinations d:a and a:d were excluded from the figure because of small numbers.

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure…

Figure 1

a–1d. Cumulative incidence of invasive cancer by most recent BI-RADS density measure (Figure 1a; almost entirely fatty breasts, 1b; scattered fibroglandular densities, 1c; heterogeneously dense, 1d; extremely dense) and previous density measure for the 14 combinations of BI-RADS density over 10 years of follow-up. The sold horizontal line represents a cumulative incidence of 1.67%. Density combinations d:a and a:d were excluded from the figure because of small numbers.

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year…

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure…

Figure 2

a–2d. Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure (2a and 2b) and two-measure density models (2c and 2d).

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year…

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure…

Figure 2

a–2d. Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure (2a and 2b) and two-measure density models (2c and 2d).

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year…

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure…

Figure 2

a–2d. Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure (2a and 2b) and two-measure density models (2c and 2d).

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year…

Figure 2

a–2d . Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure…

Figure 2

a–2d. Distribution of 5-year and 10-year risk for women with the one-measure (2a and 2b) and two-measure density models (2c and 2d).

Similar articles Cited by References
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