(a–d) Dose–response association between LTPA and incidence of type 2 diabetes modelled using restricted cubic splines and comparison of predicted RR point estimates for type 2 diabetes using different dose-assignment assumptions. LTPA converted to MET h/week with results pooled in a two-stage random-effects model. RRs were derived from a common lowest PA category within each study. Listed exposure levels were chosen to represent meaningful and easy to interpret PA volumes equivalent to the following: 30 min of MVPA; 1 h MVPA; rounded value to allow for comparison with GLS PA exposure increment; 150 min PA/current recommended guidelines; double the recommended guidelines and two high PA exposure levels investigating the risk reductions at the higher end of the LTPA spectrum. The bold lines indicate the pooled restricted cubic spline model and the black dashed line indicates the 95% CIs of the pooled curve. Duration assumption was necessary in nine out of 27 observations, applied as 45 min/session in scenarios (a) and (c), and 30 min/session in scenarios (b) and (d). Intensity assumption was necessary in 15 out of 27 observations, applied as low-intensity PA (LPA) = 3 MET, MVPA = 4.5 MET and VPA = 8 MET in scenarios (a) and (b), and LPA = 2 MET, MVPA = 3.5 MET and VPA = 7 MET in scenarios (c) and (d)
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