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2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election - Wikipedia

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The 2018 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. It occurred concurrently with a Senate election in the state, elections to the state's U.S. House seats, and various other elections. Incumbent Republican governor Scott Walker sought re-election to a third term, and was challenged by Democratic candidate and then-Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers, as well as Libertarian Phil Anderson and independent Maggie Turnbull. Evers, along with his running mate Mandela Barnes, managed to defeat Walker and Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch in a closely fought and widely watched race, ending the state's Republican trifecta.

The result was considered "too close to call" on election night, with Walker and Evers being separated by a mere few hundred votes for much of the night as counties reported their results. Shortly after midnight on November 7, Milwaukee County reported around 46,000 uncounted absentee ballots. From those ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181, giving Evers a narrow lead. The race was called for him shortly after.[1]

Wisconsin was the only state in the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle to elect a Democratic governor while voting more Republican than the national average.[a] With a margin of 1.1%, this election was also the second-closest race of the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Florida. Walker was one of two Republican incumbent governors to be defeated for re-election in 2018, the other being Bruce Rauner in neighboring Illinois, who had lost decisively to J. B. Pritzker.

Republican primary[edit] Lieutenant governor[edit] Democratic primary[edit] Eliminated in primary[edit]

Tony Evers

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Municipal elected officials

Labor unions

Mike McCabe

Individuals

Kelda Roys

U.S. senators

National organizations

State legislators

Individuals

Dana Wachs (withdrew)

U.S. representatives

State legislators

Poll source Date(s)
administered Sample
size Margin
of error Tony
Evers Matt
Flynn Andy
Gronik* Mike
McCabe Mahlon
Mitchell Josh
Pade Kelda
Roys Paul
Soglin Kathleen
Vinehout Dana
Wachs* Other Undecided Emerson College[81] July 26–28, 2018 282 ± 6.3% 30% 5% – 5% 5% – 7% 5% 10% – – 33% Marist College[82] July 15–19, 2018 466 ± 5.3% 25% 3% 2% 7% 3% 1% 3% 6% 7% 2% <1% 41% Marquette University[83] July 11–15, 2018 305 ± 6.6% 31% 5% – 3% 6% 0% 3% 4% 6% – 0% 38% Marquette University[84] June 13–17, 2018 278 ± 6.4% 25% 7% 4% 7% 4% 1% 2% 7% 5% 2% 1% 34% FM3 Research (D-Soglin)[85] March 16–19, 2018 601 ± 4.0% 30% 6% 2% 4% 6% – 3% 17% 12% 3% – 16% Marquette University[86] February 25 – March 1, 2018 318 ± 7.1% 18% 7% 3% 6% 4% – 0% 9% 5% 4% 1% 44% Public Policy Polling (D-Evers)[87] January 8–10, 2018 747 ± 3.6% 29% 5% 2% 5% 5% – 2% 10% 11% 4% – 28%

An asterisk (*) denotes that a candidate withdrew before the primary but remains on the ballot.

Results by county:

  Evers—50–60%

  Evers—40–50%

  Evers—30–40%

  Mitchell—30–40%

  Vinehout—30–40%

  Vinehout—40–50%

  Vinehout—50–60%

Lieutenant governor[edit]

Mandela Barnes, a former state representative from Milwaukee, defeated opponent Kurt Kober by a 2 to 1 margin for the nomination, becoming the first African American to be nominated by a major party for a Wisconsin gubernatorial ticket.

Eliminated in primary[edit] Results by county:

  Barnes—70–80%

  Barnes—60–70%

  Barnes—50–60%

  Kober—60–70%

Libertarian primary[edit]

Phil Anderson

State officials

Lieutenant governor[edit] Lieutenant governor[edit] Independent candidates[edit] Lieutenant governor[edit]

Despite the fact that Scott Walker had won three prior races for governor in 2010, 2012, and 2014 by fairly comfortable margins, his bid for a third term was complicated by rising unpopularity due to his policies concerning public education[97] and infrastructure. Walker also faced backlash for a deal his administration made with Taiwanese company Foxconn in 2017 to create jobs in the state in exchange for around $4.5 billion in taxpayer subsidies.[98] In 2018, the deal resulted in around $90 million of funding for roads being diverted to a stretch of I-94 that was set to be near a future Foxconn plant from the rest of state.[99] The poor condition of many roads around the state[100] as well as the lack of work being done to redo them prompted a campaign where potholes were being labeled as “Scott”-holes.[101]

Walker's approval ratings were hobbled further by the unpopularity of Republican U.S. President Donald Trump in Wisconsin.[102] Walker himself sounded the alarm on this several times in early 2018 after Democrats won two special elections to the Wisconsin State Senate in typically Republican districts[103][104] and an election to the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In April 2018, Walker warned that Wisconsin was "at risk of a blue wave" in November.[105] The Walker campaign generally focused on promoting the popular parts of his record, such as a freeze on tuition at public universities and record low unemployment.[106]

The result was expected to be close, with a record $93 million spent on the race by the two major campaigns and special interest groups from in and out of the state.[107] In the end, Walker was ultimately defeated by Democrat Tony Evers, who garnered a slightly more than 1% margin of victory, as Democrats swept every statewide race up for election.

Source Ranking As of The Cook Political Report[108] Tossup October 26, 2018 The Washington Post[109] Tossup November 5, 2018 FiveThirtyEight[110] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018 Rothenberg Political Report[111] Tossup November 1, 2018 Sabato's Crystal Ball[112] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018 RealClearPolitics[113] Tossup November 4, 2018 Daily Kos[114] Tossup November 5, 2018 Fox News[115][b] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018 Politico[116] Tossup November 5, 2018 Governing[117] Tossup November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ Democrats won the popular vote in Wisconsin by 1.1 points, and won it 3.1 points nationally.
  2. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Poll source Date(s)
administered Sample
size Margin
of error Scott
Walker (R) Tony
Evers (D) Phil
Anderson (L) Other Undecided Research Co.[118] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 45% – 3% 9% Emerson College[119] October 29–31, 2018 604 ± 4.1% 46% 51% – 2% 1% Marquette University[120] October 24–28, 2018 1,154 LV ± 3.2% 47% 47% 3% – 0% 1,400 RV ± 3.0% 47% 44% 5% – 2% Ipsos[121] October 12–18, 2018 1,193 ± 3.0% 45% 48% – 2% 5% Marquette University[122] October 3–7, 2018 799 LV ± 3.9% 47% 46% 5% – 1% 1,000 RV ± 3.6% 47% 43% 7% – 2% Marist College[123] September 30 – October 3, 2018 571 LV ± 4.8% 42% 50% 3% 2%[124] 3% 43% 53% – 1% 3% 781 RV ± 4.1% 42% 49% 3% 3%[125] 4% 43% 52% – 1% 3% Ipsos[121] September 14–24, 2018 1,109 ± 3.0% 43% 50% – 3% 4% Marquette University[126] September 12–16, 2018 614 LV ± 4.4% 44% 49% 6% – 1% 800 RV ± 4.0% 43% 47% 7% – 2% Public Policy Polling (D-High Ground Action Fund)[127] September 4–5, 2018 726 ± 4.0% 45% 49% – – 6% Suffolk University[128] August 18–24, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 44% 46% 2% 1%[129] 7% Marquette University[130] August 15–19, 2018 601 LV ± 4.5% 46% 46% 6% – 2% 800 RV ± 4.0% 46% 44% 7% – 3% Public Policy Polling[131] August 15–16, 2018 596 ± 4.0% 44% 49% – – 7% Emerson College[81] July 26–28, 2018 632 ± 4.2% 41% 48% – 5% 7% Marist College[82] July 15–19, 2018 906 ± 3.8% 41% 54% – <1% 5% Marquette University[84] June 13–17, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 48% 44% – – 5% Public Policy Polling (D-Evers)[132] May 9–10, 2018 644 ± 3.9% 45% 49% – – 6%

Evers won the election by a 1.09% margin.[134]

County[135] Tony Evers
Democratic Scott Walker
Republican All Others
Various Margin Total votes cast # % # % # % # % Adams 3,892 41.89% 5,209 56.07% 190 2.04% -1,317 -14.18% 9,291 Ashland 4,168 60.23% 2,584 37.34% 168 2.43% 1,584 22.89% 6,920 Barron 7,623 41.05% 10,655 57.38% 290 1.56% -3,032 -16.33% 18,568 Bayfield 5,152 58.57% 3,458 39.31% 187 2.13% 1,694 19.26% 8,797 Brown 51,724 44.72% 61,424 53.10% 2,521 2.18% -9,700 -8.39% 115,669 Buffalo 2,385 39.91% 3,463 57.95% 128 2.14% -1,078 -18.04% 5,976 Burnett 2,742 36.14% 4,664 61.47% 182 2.40% -1,922 -25.33% 7,588 Calumet 8,992 37.94% 14,313 60.38% 398 1.68% -5,321 -22.45% 23,703 Chippewa 11,739 42.26% 15,499 55.80% 537 1.93% -3,760 -13.54% 27,775 Clark 4,015 34.28% 7,469 63.76% 230 1.96% -3,454 -29.49% 11,714 Columbia 14,124 52.25% 12,363 45.73% 547 2.02% 1,761 6.51% 27,034 Crawford 3,354 50.79% 3,117 47.20% 133 2.01% 237 3.59% 6,604 Dane 220,052 74.69% 69,206 23.49% ,5365 1.82% 150,846 51.20% 294,623 Dodge 13,552 35.84% 23,516 62.20% 742 1.96% -9,964 -26.35% 37,810 Door 8,151 48.01% 8,536 50.27% 292 1.72% -385 -2.27% 16,979 Douglas 11,034 58.82% 7,251 38.65% 474 2.53% 3,783 20.17% 18,759 Dunn 8,667 46.96% 9,255 50.14% 535 2.90% -588 -3.19% 18,457 Eau Claire 26,768 54.82% 20,855 42.71% 1,210 2.48% 5,913 12.11% 48,833 Florence 643 29.48% 1,503 68.91% 35 1.60% -860 -39.43% 2,181 Fond du Lac 16,439 36.38% 27,941 61.84% 806 1.78% -11,502 -25.45% 45,186 Forest 1,486 37.32% 2,421 60.80% 75 1.88% -935 -23.48% 3,982 Grant 9,665 49.32% 9,502 48.49% 430 2.19% 163 0.83% 19,597 Green 9,378 54.87% 7,333 42.91% 379 2.22% 2,045 11.97% 17,090 Green Lake 2,633 32.17% 5,411 66.12% 140 1.71% -2,778 -33.94% 8,184 Iowa 6,674 59.72% 4,289 38.38% 213 1.91% 2,385 21.34% 11,176 Iron 1,264 40.88% 1,785 57.73% 43 1.39% -521 -16.85% 3,092 Jackson 3,713 46.32% 4,129 51.51% 174 2.17% -416 -5.19% 8,016 Jefferson 16,018 41.98% 21,475 56.28% 664 1.74% -5,457 -14.30% 38,157 Juneau 4,247 41.92% 5,689 56.15% 195 1.92% -1,442 -14.23% 10,131 Kenosha 34,481 50.65% 31,512 46.29% 2,081 3.06% 2,969 4.36% 68,074 Kewaunee 3,572 37.60% 5,792 60.97% 135 1.42% -2,220 -23.37% 9,499 La Crosse 32,103 56.24% 23,537 41.23% 1,441 2.52% 8,566 15.01% 57,081 Lafayette 3,135 47.76% 3,324 50.64% 105 1.60% -189 -2.88% 6,564 Langlade 2,825 30.49% 5,712 61.65% 728 7.86% -2,887 -31.16% 9,265 Lincoln 5,335 39.49% 7,865 58.22% 310 2.29% -2,530 -18.73% 13,510 Manitowoc 13,513 38.00% 21,360 60.07% 683 1.92% -7,847 -22.07% 35,556 Marathon 24,057 38.71% 36,886 59.36% 1,201 1.93% -12,829 -20.64% 62,144 Marinette 6,193 35.58% 10,916 62.72% 296 1.70% -4,723 -27.14% 17,405 Marquette 2,911 40.46% 4,143 57.58% 141 1.96% -1,232 -17.12% 7,195 Menominee 866 76.50% 233 20.58% 33 2.92% 633 55.92% 1,132 Milwaukee 262,124 66.55% 124,055 31.50% 7,698 1.95% 138,069 35.05% 393,877 Monroe 6,969 41.48% 9,464 56.34% 366 2.18% -2,495 -14.85% 16,799 Oconto 5,858 33.30% 11,490 65.32% 243 1.38% -5,632 -32.02% 17,591 Oneida 7,850 40.05% 11,248 57.39% 502 2.56% -3,398 -17.34% 19,600 Outagamie 36,290 43.51% 45,359 54.38% 1,765 2.12% -9,069 -10.87% 83,414 Ozaukee 18,394 35.94% 32,069 62.66% 713 1.39% -13,675 -26.72% 51,176 Pepin 1,333 42.52% 1,745 55.66% 57 1.82% -412 -13.14% 3,135 Pierce 8,193 46.81% 8,740 49.94% 568 3.25% -547 -3.13% 17,501 Polk 7,333 39.42% 10,866 58.41% 404 2.17% -3,533 -18.99% 18,603 Portage 18,007 51.64% 15,958 45.76% 906 2.60% 2,049 5.88% 34,871 Price 2,585 38.70% 3,996 59.83% 98 1.47% -1,411 -21.13% 6,679 Racine 40,498 46.45% 44,770 51.35% 1,922 2.20% -4,272 -4.90% 87,190 Richland 3,623 51.37% 3,285 46.58% 145 2.06% 338 4.79% 7,053 Rock 39,680 58.04% 26,904 39.35% 1,782 2.61% 12,776 18.69% 68,366 Rusk 2,184 35.81% 3,797 62.26% 118 1.93% -1,613 -26.45% 6,099 Sauk 15,630 54.02% 12,615 43.60% 687 2.37% 3,015 10.42% 28,932 Sawyer 3,484 42.50% 4,542 55.41% 171 2.09% -1,058 -12.91% 8,197 Shawano 6,121 34.01% 11,478 63.77% 401 2.23% -5,357 -29.76% 18,000 Sheboygan 20,801 39.07% 31,520 59.20% 926 1.74% -10,719 -20.13% 53,247 St. Croix 16,690 41.65% 22,108 55.17% 1,272 3.17% -5,418 -13.52% 40,070 Taylor 2,269 28.05% 5,690 70.35% 129 1.59% -3,421 -42.30% 8,088 Trempealeau 5,393 44.01% 6,623 54.04% 239 1.95% -1,230 -10.04% 12,255 Vernon 6,550 50.13% 6,276 48.03% 240 1.84% 274 2.10% 13,066 Vilas 4,510 36.03% 7,814 62.42% 195 1.56% -3,304 -26.39% 12,519 Walworth 17,394 38.26% 27,088 59.59% 977 2.15% -9,694 -21.32% 45,459 Washburn 3,292 41.59% 4,461 56.35% 163 2.06% -1,169 -14.77% 7,916 Washington 18,703 26.51% 50,958 72.23% 884 1.25% -32,255 -45.72% 70,545 Waukesha 72,131 32.52% 146,699 66.14% 2,977 1.34% -74,568 -33.62% 221,807 Waupaca 8,143 36.23% 13,909 61.89% 421 1.87% -5,766 -25.66% 22,473 Waushara 3,742 35.21% 6,719 63.21% 168 1.58% -2,977 -28.01% 10,629 Winnebago 35,610 47.01% 38,368 50.65% 1,775 2.34% -2,758 -3.64% 75,753 Wood 13,638 41.23% 18,871 57.04% 572 1.73% -5,233 -15.82% 33,081 Total 1,324,307 49.54% 1,295,080 48.44% 53,921 2.02% 29,227 1.09% 2,673,308 Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic[edit] By congressional district[edit]

Despite losing the state, Walker won five of eight congressional districts.[136]

Despite the close result, Scott Walker was unable to request a recount due to a law he had signed himself two years prior, which requires the margin of difference to be within 1%.[137]

Lame duck legislative session[edit]

Early in December 2018, a special legislative session was called by Walker to pass a series of bills to limit the powers of Governor-elect Evers, as well as incoming Democratic Attorney General Josh Kaul, who had defeated incumbent Brad Schimel in the concurrent Attorney General election.[138]

Other bills being considered included restrictions on early voting and the passage of Medicaid work requirements, which Walker had previously held off on due to the election.[139] A similar law restricting early voting that was passed several years prior had been ruled as unconstitutional.[140]

The bills were widely denounced by Democrats and others as a "power grab." Representative Gwen Moore described the move as a "coup" that "hijacked the voters' will."[141] Walker and other Republicans meanwhile argued that the bills were necessary ”checks on power” and that they did not actually strip any real powers from the executive.[142] Lawsuits were filed by Evers and various labor unions almost immediately after Walker signed the bills into law.[143]

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  125. ^ Michael White (G) with 3%, other with <1%
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  143. ^ "A look at lawsuits challenging Wisconsin's lame duck laws". AP News. February 4, 2019. Retrieved July 31, 2019.

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