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The Economic Impact of Mass Deportation in California

This report examines how shifting federal immigration enforcement policies and expanded immigration enforcement could impact California’s economy. With the nation’s largest state economy where immigrants comprise nearly one-third of the population, disruptions in California would reverberate nationwide. Drawing on economic data and stakeholder perspectives, the study analyzes the role undocumented immigrants play in the state and the potential consequences of mass deportation policies.

The following key insights illustrate the potential economic effects on California:

What we stand to lose without California’s immigrant workforce:

• Of California’s 10.6 million immigrants, our study found that 2.28 million are undocumented –representing one in five immigrants and 8% of all workers in California.

• Based on direct wage contributions alone, undocumented workers generate nearly 5% of California’s gross domestic product (GDP) – a figure that rises to nearly 9% when accounting for the broader ripple effects of their labor across the economy.Undocumented workers also contribute over $23 billion annually in local, state, and federal taxes.

Mass deportation would have uneven impacts across industry sectors:

• Over a quarter of the state’s agricultural workforce is undocumented, and nearly two-thirds are immigrants of any status. Without undocumented workers, GDP generated by California’s agriculture industry would contract by 14%.

• A mass deportation policy would also severely disrupt California’s construction industry, which already faces a major labor shortage and relies heavily on immigrant workers – 26% of whom are undocumented and 61% of whom are immigrants. Without undocumented workers, GDP generated by California’s construction industry would shrink by nearly 16%.

In interviews, stakeholders shared that businesses and communities across the state are already facing challenges and economic costs due to increased immigration enforcement. There was broad agreement from business and other community leaders for enacting federal policies to provide legalization to undocumented immigrants.

Register for the upcoming report release webinar

Join report authors, business leaders, and legal experts for a webinar on July 16th to explore what mass deportation could mean for California’s workforce and economy.

• LA Times: Farms, hotels and restaurants press Trump to exempt their businesses from immigration raids

• Bloomberg: ICE Raids Have US Farms Fearing Food Shortages, Supply Chains Cracking

• CNN: How ICE raids turned parts of Los Angeles into ghost towns

• Newsweek: Trump’s Deportations Would Remove $275B From California Economy

• KQED: Mass Deportations Would Take a Major Toll on California Economy

• SF Chronicle: (1) Mass deportations could cost California in these surprising ways; (2) ‘People don’t want to go out of the house’: Fear of ICE drives immigrants away from Bay Area restaurants

• San Francisco Business Times: California economy faces $275 billion hit from mass deportations

• Mercury News: Here’s how deportations could affect California’s economy

• New York Post: Illegal immigrants not showing up to work for fear of ICE raids: ‘It’s sheer panic’

• CalMatters: (1) California’s population shrank in Trump’s first immigration crackdown. It could happen again; (2) Much of LA’s community of immigrants is hiding, leaving a hole in the fabric of the city

• ABC: (ABC7) Mass deportations could have $275 billion economic impact on CA; (ABC30) Mass deportations would be detrimental to California economy

• CBS News: Mass deportations will have major impact on CA