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Showing content from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30982082 below:

The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level

Affiliations

• ¹ Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA, 98005, USA.
• ² Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA.
• ³ Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA, 98005, USA. abershteyn@idmod.org.

• PMID: 30982082
• PMCID: PMC6614161
• DOI: 10.1007/s00038-019-01234-z

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Christian Selinger et al. Int J Public Health. 2019 Jul.

• ¹ Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA, 98005, USA.
• ² Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Ave N, Seattle, WA, 98109, USA.
• ³ Institute for Disease Modeling, 3150 139th Ave SE, Bellevue, WA, 98005, USA. abershteyn@idmod.org.

• PMID: 30982082
• PMCID: PMC6614161
• DOI: 10.1007/s00038-019-01234-z

Item in Clipboard

Objectives: Mathematical models have unanimously predicted that a first-generation HIV vaccine would be useful and cost-effective to roll out, but that its overall impact would be insufficient to reverse the epidemic. Here, we explore what factors contribute most to limiting the impact of such a vaccine.

Methods: Ranging from a theoretical ideal to a more realistic regimen, mirroring the one used in the currently ongoing trial in South Africa (HVTN 702), we model a nested hierarchy of vaccine attributes such as speed of scale-up, efficacy, durability, and return rates for booster doses.

Results: The predominant reasons leading to a substantial loss of vaccine impact on the HIV epidemic are the time required to scale up mass vaccination, limited durability, and waning of efficacy.

Conclusions: A first-generation partially effective vaccine would primarily serve as an intermediate milestone, furnishing correlates of immunity and platforms that could serve to accelerate future development of a highly effective, durable, and scalable next-generation vaccine capable of reversing the HIV epidemic.

Keywords: Epidemiological modeling; HIV vaccine; Product development; South Africa.

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Percent reduction in cumulative new…

Percent reduction in cumulative new infections in a nested hierarchy of HIV vaccination…

Percent reduction in cumulative new infections in a nested hierarchy of HIV vaccination scenarios. The percent values refer to the cumulative number of infections prevented by vaccination in South Africa between 2027 and 2047 in populations aged 15–49, divided by the cumulative number of infections in non-vaccine reference simulations for the same time period and age range

• Targeting and vaccine durability are key for population-level impact and cost-effectiveness of a pox-protein HIV vaccine regimen in South Africa.

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• The potential impact of RV144-like vaccines in rural South Africa: a study using the STDSIM microsimulation model.

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• The potential impact of a moderately effective HIV vaccine with rapidly waning protection in South Africa and Thailand.

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• Pox-Protein Public Private Partnership program and upcoming HIV vaccine efficacy trials.

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• A tale of four studies: HIV vaccine immunogenicity and efficacy in clinical trials.

  Zolla-Pazner S, Michael NL, Kim JH. Zolla-Pazner S, et al. Lancet HIV. 2021 Jul;8(7):e449-e452. doi: 10.1016/S2352-3018(21)00073-4. Epub 2021 May 21. Lancet HIV. 2021. PMID: 34029515 Free PMC article. Review.

• Individual and community-level benefits of PrEP in western Kenya and South Africa: Implications for population prioritization of PrEP provision.

  Mudimu E, Peebles K, Mukandavire Z, Nightingale E, Sharma M, Medley GF, Klein DJ, Kripke K, Bershteyn A. Mudimu E, et al. PLoS One. 2020 Dec 31;15(12):e0244761. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0244761. eCollection 2020. PLoS One. 2020. PMID: 33382803 Free PMC article.

• The risks and benefits of providing HIV services during the COVID-19 pandemic.

  Stover J, Kelly SL, Mudimu E, Green D, Smith T, Taramusi I, Bansi-Matharu L, Martin-Hughes R, Phillips AN, Bershteyn A. Stover J, et al. PLoS One. 2021 Dec 23;16(12):e0260820. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0260820. eCollection 2021. PLoS One. 2021. PMID: 34941876 Free PMC article.

• In danger: HIV vaccine research and development in Europe.

  Tatoud R, Lévy Y, Le Grand R, Alcami J, Barbareschi G, Brander C, Cara A, Combadière B, Dabis F, Fidler S, Hanke T, Herrera C, Karlsson Hedestam GB, Kuipers H, McCormack S, Moog C, Pantaleo G, Richert L, Sanders RW, Shattock R, Streeck H, Thiebaut R, Trkola A, Üeberla K, Van Gills MJ, Wagner R, Weissenhorn W, Yazdanpanah Y, Scarlatti G, Lelièvre JD. Tatoud R, et al. PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025 Apr 8;5(4):e0004364. doi: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0004364. eCollection 2025. PLOS Glob Public Health. 2025. PMID: 40198605 Free PMC article.

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