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Showing content from http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30831552 below:

The future burden of cancer in Canada: Long-term cancer incidence projections 2013-2042

doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2019.02.011. Epub 2019 Mar 1. The future burden of cancer in Canada: Long-term cancer incidence projections 2013-2042

Affiliations

¹ Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
² Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, McMaster University Health Sciences Centre, Room 2C16, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton ON, L8S 4K1, Canada.
³ Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, 5100 Maisonneuve Blvd West, Suite 720, Montreal, QC, H4A 3T2, Canada; Gerald Bronfman Department of Oncology, Division of Cancer Epidemiology, McGill University, 5100 Maisonneuve Blvd West, Suite 720, Montreal, QC, H4A 3T2, Canada.
⁴ Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, 305 Health Sciences Building, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada.
⁵ Department of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University, Carruthers Hall, 2nd and 3rd Floors, 62 Fifth Field Company Lane, Kingston, ON, K7L 3N6, Canada.
⁶ Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada; Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
⁷ Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada; Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada. Electronic address: Darren.Brenner@ucalgary.ca.

PMID: 30831552
DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2019.02.011

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The future burden of cancer in Canada: Long-term cancer incidence projections 2013-2042

Abbey E Poirier et al. Cancer Epidemiol. 2019 Apr.

Free article doi: 10.1016/j.canep.2019.02.011. Epub 2019 Mar 1. Affiliations

¹ Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
² Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact, McMaster University, McMaster University Health Sciences Centre, Room 2C16, 1280 Main Street West, Hamilton ON, L8S 4K1, Canada.
³ Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, 5100 Maisonneuve Blvd West, Suite 720, Montreal, QC, H4A 3T2, Canada; Gerald Bronfman Department of Oncology, Division of Cancer Epidemiology, McGill University, 5100 Maisonneuve Blvd West, Suite 720, Montreal, QC, H4A 3T2, Canada.
⁴ Department of Health Sciences, Carleton University, 305 Health Sciences Building, 1125 Colonel By Drive, Ottawa, ON, K1S 5B6, Canada.
⁵ Department of Public Health Sciences, Queen's University, Carruthers Hall, 2nd and 3rd Floors, 62 Fifth Field Company Lane, Kingston, ON, K7L 3N6, Canada.
⁶ Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada; Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada.
⁷ Department of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention Research, Cancer Control Alberta, Alberta Health Services, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada; Departments of Oncology and Community Health Sciences, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, Holy Cross Centre, Room 513, Box ACB, 2210-2nd St. SW, Calgary, AB, T2S 3C3, Canada. Electronic address: Darren.Brenner@ucalgary.ca.

PMID: 30831552
DOI: 10.1016/j.canep.2019.02.011

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Abstract

Background: Cancer is the leading cause of death in Canada and the estimated annual spending associated with cancer is approximately $7.5 billion. Projecting the future burden of cancer in Canada is essential for health planning and evaluation. We aimed to estimate the future incidence of cancer in Canada to 2042.

Methods: Age-sex-region-specific cancer incidence data were obtained for the years 1983-2012 and cancer incidence was projected from 2013 to 2042 for the top five cancer sites. The modelling algorithm combined a mixture of cancer projection methods to select the best-fitted model. When the chosen model produced by the modelling algorithm resulted in estimates that were not consistent with expert opinion, an alternate model was selected that took into consideration historical changes in policy, screening and lifestyle behaviours. Incidence projections were made for Canada and its provinces.

Results: Lung cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 14,866 cases in men and 19,162 in women in 2042. Colorectal cancer incidence is estimated to rise to 28,146 in men and 21,102 in women. Cases of bladder cancer are projected to rise to 10,708 and 3,364 in men and women, respectively. Breast cancer incidence is predicted to rise to 40,712 and prostate cancer incidence is projected to rise to 92,949.

Conclusion: These cancer incidence projections up to 2042 can be used for planning cancer control strategies and prevention programs. Given the ongoing changes in the prevalence of risk factors and in cancer prevention policies, these estimates should be interpreted with caution.

Keywords: Bladder cancer; Breast cancer; Canada, projections; Cancer; Colorectal cancer; Incidence; Lung cancer; Prostate cancer; Trends.

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