Hi John, (not dear john ;-)) I don't think you miss anything, maybe we look at the different sides of a coin. State transition probabilities are a list of 2-d array or a matrix which results from calculation of the probabilities from 1 state to the others. If we have 4 states, say; 1,2,3,4 , then we have a chance to go from state 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 to the other 3 states with different probabities. It is an analytical tool used in decision making. Most people make decision best on intuition. As I said the other dimension is the time it takes in each transition. So, if you think about 3 periods of time, yesterday, today and tomorrow you will get different probabilities in each period. If this period is short say a millisecond or less, then human can not take any notice. But, if the time is extended then what will happen in the interval. My want is to keep these probabilties in a file appending with new probabilties calculated for new period. They say that, in long run the state transition probabilties will not depend upon the initial states (the beginning ones). And thinngs may be clear enough to make decision (with no longer waiting). Tawee
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