Jon Fobes/The Plain Dealer
The Ford Motor Co. assembly plant in Avon Lake in Lorain County, which is one of the state's hardest-hit areas in unemployment.• Find the three-year unemployment trend for each place in Ohio at cleveland.com/datacentral
COLUMBUS -- As jobs continue to be blown away by an unrelenting economic downturn, Ohio's unemployment rate has risen to 7.8 percent -- and climbing.
But that figure alone doesn't reveal just how deep and far-reaching the pain has become for Ohio's workers.
A Plain Dealer analysis of new unemployment claims by ZIP code shows that almost without exception, people in every community in every part of the state are crying out for help. In some areas, the rise in requests for state aid is jaw-dropping.
In the fourth quarter of 2008, new unemployment claims rose in 98 percent of the ZIP codes over the same period in 2006, according to the newspaper's analysis of state data.
In three of every four ZIP codes, new claims from last October through December jumped at least 50 percent from the same period in 2006, the research found. And in nearly one-third of the areas, the new claims more than doubled.
The swollen fourth-quarter results were triggered mainly by 145,151 new unemployment claims for December, by far the highest total in the last three decades, according to the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services. The uptick in new claims also follows a national trend.
And preliminary numbers for January figure to follow suit. The highest one-month unemployment rate in Ohio since 1980, according to Job and Family Services, was 13.8 percent, set both in December 1982 and January 1983.
Plain Dealer Computer Assisted Reporting Editor Rich Exner analyzed claims in nearly 1,000 ZIP codes across the state, eliminating those dedicated mainly for businesses or post office boxes, since jobless workers file claims where they live, and some areas where there was not enough data available to draw a comparison.
While the state routinely breaks down unemployment figures by county, the newspaper analysis peered closer, essentially to the neighborhood level, and found no type of ZIP code -- whether best defined by wealth, race, geography or overall population -- is immune to effects of the sour economy.
The most new claims during the fourth quarter of 2008 for any ZIP code were in 44035, an industrialized area mainly in Elyria and one of the state's most populated ZIP codes, not far from a Ford assembly plant that employs about 2,000 and had several weeklong layoffs last year.
But even in tiny 44040, home of Gates Mills, one of Northeast Ohio's wealthiest addresses, there were 23 new claims -- a relatively small number, but a 360 percent increase from the same period in 2006.
Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, in a recent interview with The Plain Dealer, said he is working hard to address a problem that he can't quite understand, quantify or contain.
"We are in uncharted waters," Strickland said. "We've never faced this particular set of economic circumstances. There's no blueprint to follow. We don't know how deep it's going to go or how long it's going to last."
Pervasiveness takes toll on compensation fund
"The numbers represent real people and real families," Strickland said.
Indeed. Nearly a half-million Ohioans are out of work today, compared with about 347,000 unemployed in December 2007. At this point, economists expect unemployment figures that outpace even their own projections. But finding so few areas unscathed by the recession still stunned some market watchers.
"It is disturbing that it is this pervasive. I had no idea," said Zach Schiller, research director for Policy Matters Ohio, a liberal economic policy think tank based in Cleveland. "You would think that there would be more areas that are less badly affected, because that is what we've seen historically."
Andy Doehrel, president and chief executive officer of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, said, "On the initial blush you do step back and say, 'Wow, that is really widespread.' "
And it is taking its toll.
The state's unemployment compensation fund ran out of money in December, forcing the state to borrow $550 million from the federal government to continue making claim payments through February. And the Ohio Department of Job and Family Services is already contemplating borrowing more to continue payments in March.
In early January, the state's unemployment sign-up Internet site took on more than twice the normal traffic and crashed from the crush of new users who started the year jobless.
And just a day before that, state phone lines set up to accept new claims were inundated with 10 times the normal volume and collapsed in need of repairs.
And that represents just the group of Ohioans who are eligible to collect unemployment benefits. Tens of thousands more are not eligible for benefits, so Ohio's true unemployment rate is probably somewhere in double figures, said Cleveland economic research analyst George Zeller.
"We can only really see a fraction of a number that is actually much larger," he said.
Predicting a turnaround may be difficult
New unemployment claims are so pervasive, observers say, because this recession has affected so many key economic sectors -- manufacturing, retail and banking -- all at once.
"The fact that it is hitting so many of these sectors, I guess it shouldn't be surprising that it is hitting so many local areas so hard," Schiller said.
And since workers do not typically live in the same ZIP code as their workplace, if one business closes, then dozens of surrounding areas can be affected.
"When you stop and think about today's work force being so much more mobile than ever before, when you shut down a factory you are affecting employees who live in a three- or four-county radius," said Doehrel, who is also co-chairman of the Ohio Unemployment Compensation Advisory Council.
Doehrel said this recession has been so perplexing because in the past, economists have been able to make predictions about economic recovery based on historical data.
Not this time.
For example, few state leaders thought Ohio's unemployment compensation fund would go broke so quickly -- until it happened.
"The whole formula for funding the system was based on historical numbers," Doehrel said. "If you based it on historical numbers, then the fund shouldn't have gone broke.
"This is unprecedented in that this prolonged downturn in Ohio's economic situation is far and away longer than anyone can remember, and I've been following this for over 25 years," Doehrel said.
Because Ohio's economy is still so heavily rooted in manufacturing, the key to reversing the state's fortunes is to first get the rest of the nation out of a recession so that there will again be demand here and elsewhere for Ohio-made goods, Zeller said.
"The remedy is to get the national recession over with and then get the Ohio recession over with by growing in manufacturing and growing in finance and insurance," Zeller said. "Neither one is happening right now."
Recent bad news
A flurry of economic reports last week cast a dreary picture of employment. Here's a summary.
FRIDAY: The U.S. Labor Department reported that the national unemployment rate was 7.6 percent in January. The unemployment rate measures the number of people "actively looking for work" as a percentage of the labor force. It is based on a survey of 60,000 people nationwide. Ohio's unemployment rate for January will be announced Feb. 27.
THURSDAY: The U.S. Labor Department reported that 582,000 people filed for unemployment insurance for the first time in January, the highest rate since the early 1980s.
WEDNESDAY: The Ohio Department of Job and Family Services reported that the state lost 262,383 jobs, or about 5 percent of its work force, between 2000 and mid-2008. The report was based on information from employers.
Loss of jobs affects surrounding businesses
The Plain Dealer analysis showed the problem spreading well beyond urban centers.
Fourth-quarter claims doubled over the same period in 2006 in eight ZIP codes in eastern Portage County. Lake County's 44077 had a whopping 1,561 new claims, up from 993 two years earlier. And there were nearly 1,467 new claims for 44256, which covers central Medina County, up from 1,060.
And when Ohioans lose their jobs they also stop spending money in their own communities, leading to a ripple effect on businesses like movie theaters, restaurants and dry cleaners.
One of the hardest-hit areas in the state is Lorain County, where the results were striking -- from blue-collar ZIP codes in Elyria to white-collar areas of Avon Lake.
Residents blame the spike in unemployment claims on the auto-industry layoffs at the Ford assembly plant in Avon Lake.
"They're always eliminating a shift or laying off people," Jean Matthews said as she picked up a coffee at the Rio Cafe a few miles from the plant. She said there have been so many cuts she has lost track. "Every time you turn around, you just keep hearing about it."
Across the strip mall's parking lot at McCarthy's Ale House, employees said many customers were laid-off Ford employees.
"That's why they're here," said bartender Lisa Tarski. She and fellow employee Donnie Banner said cuts at Ford and local steel mills have customers seeking bargain meal and drink prices.
"They'll ask," Tarski said, "and they'll settle for the cheapest one."
In Elyria, shoppers near the Midway Mall on a recent afternoon lamented the closings of stores and restaurants. People who had lost jobs said they would move to find work someplace else -- if they thought there was a good place to look.
Raymond Greene, a roofer from Elyria, said the entire 10-man crew he works with is on unemployment. Greene said that despite cutting prices, his boss cannot find any jobs to do.
After two months on unemployment, Greene said he has just one month of checks left.
"Then? I don't know," he said. "I'll have to find another job, I guess."
Plain Dealer reporter Patrick O'Donnell contributed to this story
If you purchase a product or register for an account through a link on our site, we may receive compensation. By using this site, you consent to our User Agreement and agree that your clicks, interactions, and personal information may be collected, recorded, and/or stored by us and social media and other third-party partners in accordance with our Privacy Policy.
RetroSearch is an open source project built by @garambo | Open a GitHub Issue
Search and Browse the WWW like it's 1997 | Search results from DuckDuckGo
HTML:
3.2
| Encoding:
UTF-8
| Version:
0.7.4